Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
